Trade and Energy at Risk? All Because of... Extreme Weather
The possible occurrence of El Niño (a climate phenomenon associated with the warming of Pacific Ocean waters) in 2026 could trigger a global energy crisis. Scientists point to the risk of record-breaking temperatures and serious disruptions to the economy.
Forecasts suggest one of the strongest phenomena in history.
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The first months of 2026 are among the warmest in recorded history. Data from Copernicus and NOAA confirm the trend. Atmospheric CO2 concentration has reached 429.4 ppm. The average global temperature has risen by 1.18°C compared to the pre-industrial era. Climate models indicate a growing likelihood of El Niño occurring in the summer or early autumn.
El Niño Changes the Climate System
El Niño is a phenomenon that occurs every 2–7 years and lasts from 9 to 12 months. It involves an increase in surface water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. Under normal conditions, the eastern Pacific is cooler and the western part is warmer. During El Niño, this pattern reverses. These changes are accompanied by a weakening or reversal of wind directions over the tropics.
The phenomenon affects weather worldwide. South America experiences heavy rainfall. Australia and parts of South Asia may face droughts and wildfires. Experts note that a threshold of 0.5 degrees above normal indicates El Niño. Models show the possibility of an increase of up to 2.2 degrees. This level is referred to as super-El Niño.
The phenomenon affects weather worldwide. South America experiences heavy rainfall. Australia and parts of South Asia may face droughts and wildfires. Experts note that a threshold of 0.5 degrees above normal indicates El Niño. Models show the possibility of an increase of up to 2.2 degrees. This level is referred to as super-El Niño.
El Niño can reverse typical weather patterns – regions that are usually dry experience heavy rainfall, while wet regions face droughts.Photo: Adobe Stock, standard license (illustrative photo)
Trade Routes and Energy Pressure
The phenomenon may disrupt the functioning of key transport routes. During the previous El Niño, traffic through the Panama Canal dropped by about 50 percent. The reason was a shortage of water needed to operate the locks. The canal is crucial for global trade, including the transport of energy resources. In such situations, it becomes a bottleneck.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions increase the risk of crisis. Blockades and restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, related to actions by the US and Iran, affect oil and gas supplies. Some shipments are redirected through the Panama Canal as an alternative. If drought limits its capacity, problems will worsen. Experts point to the possibility of a crisis greater than after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions increase the risk of crisis. Blockades and restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, related to actions by the US and Iran, affect oil and gas supplies. Some shipments are redirected through the Panama Canal as an alternative. If drought limits its capacity, problems will worsen. Experts point to the possibility of a crisis greater than after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
The effects of El Niño are usually strongest in the year following its appearance. The last episode began in 2023, and the following year brought record global temperatures. Scientists indicate that a similar scenario could repeat in 2027. Rising energy prices may lead to inflation and higher import costs. Households and businesses will feel the impact.
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