Norway has calculated the costs of climate change. The result depends not only on the weather

The report was published on June 18, 2026. SSB used the SNOW general equilibrium model and external estimates of costs and benefits resulting from various climate impacts. The study includes six scenarios: three for the middle of the century (2050) and three for the end of the century (2100).

In the analysis, climate change is treated as an external factor. SSB indicates that it affects the Norwegian economy through physical changes in the country and through the influence of global markets. The report describes domestic effects in more detail. Data on foreign impacts are limited.

Seven categories were included in the model: agriculture, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture, hydropower, tourism, buildings, and transport infrastructure. Estimates for these areas come from partial studies collected for EKLIM. Each category was assessed in six climate scenarios.

SSB states that the main goal of the model was to show the effects of interactions between markets and economic participants. Climate effects in one industry can transfer costs to other parts of the value chain. Some companies and households adjust their decisions, which can limit the initial increase in costs.

The report also points to the impact of existing economic policy. Taxation of labor can increase social costs when climate impacts reduce employment. The opposite effect occurs when adjustments increase the number of people employed. Taxes, subsidies, tariffs, and instruments supporting selected industries are also important.

In the categories of hydropower, agriculture, and forestry, the direct impact of climate is positive in the report. The largest direct negative effect is attributed to transport infrastructure. When all categories are considered together, the social loss is more than twice as high as the direct costs of climate change.