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It is unclear how much Norway will earn from oil. Everything depends on... climate goals
Norway is among the economies most dependent on international developments. Fot. Canva (zdjęcie poglądowe)
According to the latest World Energy Outlook 2025 report published by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global energy demand continues to rise. This applies to both fossil fuels and renewable sources, as well as nuclear energy. Oil price forecasts for 2035 range from 33 to 89 dollars per barrel, depending on the climate policy scenario.
The report indicates that in 2024, emissions from the energy sector reached a record level of 38 billion tons of CO₂ equivalent. At the same time, consumption of oil, gas, and coal increased, which, according to the IEA, makes it more difficult to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.
In the scenario based on current policies (CPS), the price of oil is expected to rise to 89 dollars in 2035 and 106 dollars in 2050. If current policy commitments are maintained (STEPS), the projected prices are 80 and 76 dollars, respectively. In the scenario assuming the achievement of climate goals (NZE), the price will drop to 33 dollars in 2035 and 25 dollars in 2050.
In the scenario based on current policies (CPS), the price of oil is expected to rise to 89 dollars in 2035 and 106 dollars in 2050. If current policy commitments are maintained (STEPS), the projected prices are 80 and 76 dollars, respectively. In the scenario assuming the achievement of climate goals (NZE), the price will drop to 33 dollars in 2035 and 25 dollars in 2050.
Record growth of renewable energy sources
The IEA points out that the global expansion of renewable energy sources was record-breaking for the 23rd consecutive year in 2024. Nevertheless, the consumption of fossil fuels and nuclear energy production reached their highest levels in history. Climate-friendly technologies such as wind, solar, and hydropower are becoming increasingly profitable.
However, further grid expansion, increased energy efficiency, and the implementation of CO2 capture and storage technologies will be required. The IEA predicts that oil demand could reach 113 million barrels per day in 2050 if climate policy is not tightened.
However, further grid expansion, increased energy efficiency, and the implementation of CO2 capture and storage technologies will be required. The IEA predicts that oil demand could reach 113 million barrels per day in 2050 if climate policy is not tightened.
The global expansion of renewable energy sources was record-breaking in 2024.Photo: Equinor press materials
New energy centers of the world
The report also highlights the growing role of countries such as India, Southeast Asian nations, and the Middle East, which are increasingly influencing global energy markets. The IEA warns that rising geopolitical tensions mean that energy security is competing with climate goals.
According to the agency's director, Fatih Birol, governments should balance the need for cheap and stable energy with actions to protect the climate. In the short term, high supply of oil and gas is expected, and oil prices currently remain at 60–65 dollars per barrel.
According to the agency's director, Fatih Birol, governments should balance the need for cheap and stable energy with actions to protect the climate. In the short term, high supply of oil and gas is expected, and oil prices currently remain at 60–65 dollars per barrel.
Artificial intelligence and the energy of the future
A new trend noted by the IEA is the growing investment in data centers supporting artificial intelligence. In 2025, they are expected to reach a value of 580 billion dollars, surpassing the oil industry's capital expenditures estimated at 540 billion dollars.
The expansion of digital infrastructure requires large amounts of energy and may burden power systems. The largest investments in this sector are expected in the USA, China, and the European Union.
The expansion of digital infrastructure requires large amounts of energy and may burden power systems. The largest investments in this sector are expected in the USA, China, and the European Union.
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