Crude Oil Prices Under Pressure. Will Venezuela Decide Everything?

According to analyses, there is more oil available on the market than current demand requires. The decline in prices is influenced by lower demand from the transportation sector in the US.

In China, the share of renewable energy sources is increasing. At the same time, the construction and infrastructure sectors in the country remain weak. Offshore oil storage has also increased, creating an additional supply reserve.

Both the United States and OPEC countries have increased oil production. However, the group of oil-producing countries may limit output to prevent further price declines. Citigroup describes such a scenario in its forecasts for 2026.

The institution's analysts predict a price range of $55 to $65 per barrel. They do not expect a quick return to higher levels.

According to analysts, a sharp increase in prices is unlikely without strong geopolitical events. A potential factor remains the situation in Venezuela, which has the world's largest oil reserves.

However, possible political changes could increase supply rather than limit it. The pace of global economic growth also does not appear to be accelerating significantly. This limits the pressure on commodity prices to rise.

The energy situation is also affected by the gas market and weather conditions in Europe. European countries are still not receiving supplies from Russia, and a return to previous relations is not currently being considered.

Damaged transmission infrastructure further complicates the situation. At the same time, the future reconstruction of Ukraine may increase energy demand in the region. However, the impact on oil prices will depend on the global balance of supply and demand.