Will There Be Another Interest Rate Hike in Norway? A New Report Has Emerged
Statistics Norway (SSB) is predicting another interest rate hike in Norway later this year. The decision could be made as early as June 18, when Norges Bank announces its latest stance on interest rates. Among the reasons cited is persistently high inflation.
The SSB analysis differs from bank strategists' forecasts.
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On June 15, SSB released new forecasts for the Norwegian economy. These estimates are published four times a year, and the latest set shows continued price pressure and challenging conditions for the housing market. This is an important signal for borrowers. The current interest rate is 4.25%, following a May increase from 4%.
Rates May Rise. Inflation Still Weighs on Norwegians
SSB believes that Norges Bank may raise rates again this year. According to researcher Thomas von Brasch, the high pace of price increases means this could happen as soon as Thursday, which is the next scheduled decision date. Norges Bank is expected to announce its new position on interest rates then.
Last week, new inflation data was published. Prices in Norway rose by 3.1% from May 2025 to May 2026, strengthening DNB Carnegie's forecasts for a possible hike, as noted by chief economist Kjersti Haugland. A different scenario is presented by Nordea, where senior macro and interest rate strategist Sara Midtgaard expects rates to remain unchanged, with a signal for a hike in September.
Last week, new inflation data was published. Prices in Norway rose by 3.1% from May 2025 to May 2026, strengthening DNB Carnegie's forecasts for a possible hike, as noted by chief economist Kjersti Haugland. A different scenario is presented by Nordea, where senior macro and interest rate strategist Sara Midtgaard expects rates to remain unchanged, with a signal for a hike in September.
Banking experts speaking in June believed that the earliest an interest rate hike could happen would be in September.Photo: Adobe Stock, standard license
Norges Bank's Target Is Still Far Off. Wage Growth Expected to Slow
SSB forecasts that inflation will gradually decrease. According to the agency, price growth will fall from 3.2% this year to around 2% in 2029, which is Norges Bank's inflation target. However, von Brasch points out that high wage growth and rising prices abroad are prolonging the path to this level.
The pace of wage growth is also expected to change. SSB predicts wage growth will slow to around 3%, down from the current 4.4%. Real wage growth is expected to be about 1% per year in the coming years. According to forecasts, the interest rate will be gradually reduced from mid-2027, reaching 3.5% by the end of 2029.
The pace of wage growth is also expected to change. SSB predicts wage growth will slow to around 3%, down from the current 4.4%. Real wage growth is expected to be about 1% per year in the coming years. According to forecasts, the interest rate will be gradually reduced from mid-2027, reaching 3.5% by the end of 2029.
The next key moment for the market will be Thursday's Norges Bank decision. It will show whether the central bank will react immediately or postpone action. The next SSB forecasts will be part of the following cyclical economic publication.
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