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Norwegian Oil Sector Revised Upwards. 2026 Forecasts Surprise
The industry maintains a high level of investment despite the projected decline. Fot. Jamie Baikie, materiały prasowe Equinor
Statistics Norway (SSB) has released new investment forecasts for the oil and gas sector for 2026. According to the data, investments could reach NOK 249 billion. This is a clear upward revision compared to previous estimates. Companies now expect a smaller slowdown than previously anticipated.
In the latest figures, SSB has raised its investment forecast from NOK 230 billion to NOK 249 billion. This is an increase of 8.4 percent compared to the previous assumption.
Despite this change, investments are still expected to be lower than in 2025, for which the level of NOK 275 billion has been maintained. However, the decline between the years is smaller than previously indicated. Companies report their plans quarterly, which influences the shape of the forecasts.
Despite this change, investments are still expected to be lower than in 2025, for which the level of NOK 275 billion has been maintained. However, the decline between the years is smaller than previously indicated. Companies report their plans quarterly, which influences the shape of the forecasts.
Norway Doesn’t Want to Save on Oil
SSB reports that the revision is mainly due to increased spending on the construction and operation of fields. Higher values were also recorded in other categories, except for the exploration segment, which remains stable.
The new estimate for 2026 is 1.6 percent lower than the analogous forecast for 2025 presented a year earlier. In August, a larger decline of 4.5 percent was expected. The data is also influenced by the timing of plan submissions, project costs, and currency fluctuations.
The new estimate for 2026 is 1.6 percent lower than the analogous forecast for 2025 presented a year earlier. In August, a larger decline of 4.5 percent was expected. The data is also influenced by the timing of plan submissions, project costs, and currency fluctuations.
Investments in 2026 will be lower than in 2025.Photo: Equinor | Øyvind Gravås and Even Kleppa
Outlook for the Norwegian Sector
The sector is entering a period of gradual slowdown after years of exceptionally high investment. Norges Bank still forecasts a 5 percent decline in both 2026 and 2027. High activity in the industry has been an important driver of the Norwegian economy.
Economists pointed out that it contributed, among other things, to rising house prices in western cities and reduced the need for interest rate cuts. At the same time, some sectors, such as construction, recorded weaker results.
Economists pointed out that it contributed, among other things, to rising house prices in western cities and reduced the need for interest rate cuts. At the same time, some sectors, such as construction, recorded weaker results.
What Awaits the Sector After Pandemic Incentives Expire?
The new forecasts show that despite the expected decline, investment activity in the industry remains high. The effects of tax changes introduced after the pandemic in 2020 are also significant.
These changes increased the number of projects on the Norwegian shelf and maintained a high level of spending. The coming years will show how the sector adapts to the phasing out of these incentives and how new offshore initiatives will develop.
These changes increased the number of projects on the Norwegian shelf and maintained a high level of spending. The coming years will show how the sector adapts to the phasing out of these incentives and how new offshore initiatives will develop.
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