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Inflation Down Before the Holidays? Black Friday Shakes Up Prices
Data from the report may confirm signs of a gradual economic recovery. Fot. Canva
Economists expect that November price data will show a calming of inflation after the October increase. The results will be crucial ahead of the last Norges Bank meeting of the year, which will bring new forecasts for monetary policy.
Inflation data for November is set to be released on December 10, followed a day later by the Regionalt nettverk report describing the situation of companies in the Norwegian economy. Analysts emphasize that inflation may have the strongest impact on expectations regarding further decisions by the central bank.
In October, inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.4 percent, which economists described as a surprising jump. Now, they predict a decrease to 3.1 percent, in line with Norges Bank's earlier assumptions. Brokerage house Carnegie forecasts an even lower reading—3 percent—which, according to their analysts, could increase the likelihood of a rate cut in March.
In October, inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.4 percent, which economists described as a surprising jump. Now, they predict a decrease to 3.1 percent, in line with Norges Bank's earlier assumptions. Brokerage house Carnegie forecasts an even lower reading—3 percent—which, according to their analysts, could increase the likelihood of a rate cut in March.
Impact of Black Friday and Food Prices
Economists from Handelsbanken expect inflation to fall to 3.2 percent. In their view, such a result would mean a smaller discrepancy between actual data and the central bank's forecasts. Overall inflation, including energy prices, is expected to drop to 2.7 percent, thanks in part to the Norgespris program.
They note that the October price spike may have resulted from store strategies ahead of Black Friday, involving price increases in October and corrections at the end of November. Brokerage house Carnegie predicts a possible monthly decrease in food and beverage prices of about 1 percent.
They note that the October price spike may have resulted from store strategies ahead of Black Friday, involving price increases in October and corrections at the end of November. Brokerage house Carnegie predicts a possible monthly decrease in food and beverage prices of about 1 percent.
Black Friday had a strong impact on price changes in October and November.Photo: stock.adobe.com/standardowa
Expectations for Decisions in 2026
The central bank does not plan to cut interest rates at the upcoming meeting, after two cuts earlier this year. Analysts highlight the importance of new projections, which will indicate the possible timing of the next move in 2026. Previous forecasts assumed one cut per year, with the next possible in summer 2026.
Experts from Nordea assess that inflation remains high, making earlier policy easing difficult. In their opinion, a broad and clear improvement in inflation data would be needed to accelerate the path of cuts.
Experts from Nordea assess that inflation remains high, making earlier policy easing difficult. In their opinion, a broad and clear improvement in inflation data would be needed to accelerate the path of cuts.
Report Will Show the Direction of the Economy
The Regionalt nettverk report is expected to show how businesses assess the economic situation. Economists expect moderate growth in activity and signals of changes in employment.
In some sectors, especially construction, there may be more optimism about the beginning of next year. Data from the report, together with inflation readings, will provide Norges Bank with a broader picture of the situation ahead of the December decision.
In some sectors, especially construction, there may be more optimism about the beginning of next year. Data from the report, together with inflation readings, will provide Norges Bank with a broader picture of the situation ahead of the December decision.
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