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Behind Labour's Victory: Massive Shifts Among Voters in Norway
39% of voters who cast their ballots in 2021 changed parties in 2025. Fot. Adobe Stock, licencja standardowa
Four out of ten voters who participated in the 2021 election switched parties in the 2025 parliamentary elections. The data indicate historically high voter mobility. The Progress Party mobilized many previous non-voters. Among those who voted in both elections, changing party preference was a common phenomenon.
Panel analysis shows that 55% of those eligible to vote in both 2021 and 2025 either changed parties or moved in or out of the non-voting group.
Among voters who participated in both elections, 39% voted for a different party than they did four years earlier. This is a higher result than in recent election cycles. A similar level was only recorded between 2001 and 2005. Less than half of voters made the same choice twice.
Among voters who participated in both elections, 39% voted for a different party than they did four years earlier. This is a higher result than in recent election cycles. A similar level was only recorded between 2001 and 2005. Less than half of voters made the same choice twice.
Progress Party Sees Biggest Surge in Support
In the 2025 elections, the Progress Party recorded the largest increase in support, gaining 12.2 percentage points. The Labour Party increased its support by 1.8 percentage points, while the Green Party, Red Party, and Christian Democratic Party saw smaller increases.
The Centre Party suffered the biggest losses, dropping 7.9 percentage points. The Conservative Party and Socialist Left Party also saw declines in support. The Liberal Party fell below the 4.0% electoral threshold.
The Centre Party suffered the biggest losses, dropping 7.9 percentage points. The Conservative Party and Socialist Left Party also saw declines in support. The Liberal Party fell below the 4.0% electoral threshold.
The scale of changes was higher than in the 2017 and 2021 elections.Photo: fotolia.com
Voter Flows Between Parties
The Centre Party retained only 30% of its 2021 voters. Most of those who left switched to the Labour Party and the Progress Party. The Conservative Party lost a significant number of voters to the Progress Party.
The Socialist Left Party mainly lost voters to the Labour Party and the Green Party. The Progress Party also attracted many previous non-voters, which contributed to higher turnout.
The Socialist Left Party mainly lost voters to the Labour Party and the Green Party. The Progress Party also attracted many previous non-voters, which contributed to higher turnout.
Young Voters Are Changing the Balance of Power
Among voters who gained the right to vote for the first time in 2025, the Progress Party was the largest group, alongside the Labour Party, Socialist Left Party, and Green Party.
A particularly high increase in support for the Progress Party was noted among young men. In this group, support rose from 15% in 2021 to 38% in 2025.
A particularly high increase in support for the Progress Party was noted among young men. In this group, support rose from 15% in 2021 to 38% in 2025.
Mobilizing non-voters contributed to higher turnout.Photo: fotolia
Clear Differences in Voting Between Women and Men
The results of the 2025 parliamentary elections show significant differences in how women and men voted. Women were more likely than men to support left-wing and center-left parties, including the Labour Party, Socialist Left Party, and Green Party. Among women, the Labour Party was the largest group regardless of age or employment sector.
Men more often chose right-wing parties, with the Progress Party showing a particularly strong lead. In 2025, the party received 14 percentage points more support among men than among women. These differences were greater than in the 2021 elections and significantly influenced the Progress Party’s overall result.
At the same time, the Socialist Left Party, Green Party, and Liberal Party recorded higher support among women, especially in younger age groups. Gender-based differences in voting preferences were among the most visible elements of the electorate’s structure in 2025.
Men more often chose right-wing parties, with the Progress Party showing a particularly strong lead. In 2025, the party received 14 percentage points more support among men than among women. These differences were greater than in the 2021 elections and significantly influenced the Progress Party’s overall result.
At the same time, the Socialist Left Party, Green Party, and Liberal Party recorded higher support among women, especially in younger age groups. Gender-based differences in voting preferences were among the most visible elements of the electorate’s structure in 2025.
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