Are Norwegian companies feeling the crisis? Changing market sentiment. In the background: the krone exchange rate and interest rates

The Confederation of Norwegian Enterprise (NHO) has published the results of a new survey among its member companies. Respondents indicate that interest rates in Norway are unlikely to fall in 2026. This is a clear change compared to last autumn. In October, businesses expected two rate cuts within the year.

According to NHO's chief economist Øystein Dørum, the shift in sentiment is primarily due to new inflation data. At the beginning of the year, there was a marked increase in the index. The statistics turned out to be much higher than Norges Bank had previously assumed. At the same time, Norway's economy remains stable.

In such conditions, companies expect high interest rates to persist. Inflation is still above the central bank's target. According to Dørum, rising service prices play an important role. They are high because wages have increased significantly recently, according to business leaders.

Norges Bank expects wage growth of around 4.2 percent this year. This factor could have a major impact on the future path of interest rates. If wage growth turns out to be significantly lower, the central bank may revise its forecasts. In such a scenario, earlier rate cuts would be possible.

Other factors may also affect inflation. A strengthening of the Norwegian krone could lower the prices of imported goods. On the other hand, weaker global economic growth could limit economic growth in Norway. In this scenario, Norges Bank would not have to maintain such a restrictive monetary policy.

The survey also indicates a deterioration in companies' assessments of the current market situation. 21 percent of firms describe it as good, while 25 percent as bad. This means a negative balance of 4 percentage points. The best sentiment is in western and northern Norway. The weakest is in Trøndelag and Østlandet.