Nordea: loans may not get cheaper before 2028. The bank expects one more rate hike

<ul> <li>Nordea forecasts an increase in Norges Bank's key policy rate to 4.5 per cent.<\/li> <li>According to the bank, rates may remain at this level throughout 2027.<\/li> <li>The first rate cut would not take place until 2028.<\/li> <li>A 0.25 percentage point increase could raise monthly interest costs by around NOK 625 on debt of NOK 3 million.<\/li> <li>Norges Bank's next decision will be made on 24 September.<\/li> <\/ul>

For now, this is Nordea's forecast, not a decision by Norges Bank. However, it shows how much expectations for Norwegian interest rates have changed. As recently as late 2025, some economists expected borrowers to see several rate cuts in 2026.

The opposite has happened. In May, Norges Bank raised the rate from 4 to 4.25 per cent, and it is now once again considering an upward move.

In August, Norges Bank kept its key policy rate at 4.25 per cent. However, central bank governor Ida Wolden Bache noted that inflation remains too high and that another rate hike may be needed.

The next decision will be made on <strong>24 September<\/strong>. On the same day, the central bank will present a new monetary policy report and its own forecast for the future path of rates.

Nordea expects one rate hike in the autumn, to <strong>4.5 per cent<\/strong>. It does not determine that this will happen exactly on 24 September, but this will be the first date on which such a scenario could materialise.

According to the bank's forecast, the rate would then remain at 4.5 per cent until the end of 2027. It would not fall to 4 per cent until 2028.

A change of just 0.25 percentage points may seem insignificant, but with a large home loan it quickly amounts to several or even more than ten thousand kroner a year.

If the bank passes the entire increase on to the customer's interest rate, the rise in interest costs alone would be approximately: <ul> <li>around <strong>NOK 625 per month<\/strong> with debt of NOK 3 million,<\/li> <li>around <strong>NOK 830 per month<\/strong> with debt of NOK 4 million.<\/li> <\/ul>

With a balance of NOK 4 million, this amounts to around <strong>NOK 10,000 in additional interest over a year<\/strong>, before taking the tax deduction into account.

The actual monthly payment may change differently, as it depends, among other things, on the type of loan, the remaining repayment period and the terms agreed with the bank. However, the direction is clear: if rates remain high throughout 2027, relief for household budgets may come much later than many borrowers had expected.

Core inflation was 2.7 per cent in July, lower than Norges Bank's earlier projections. However, Nordea expects price growth to accelerate again, with inflation at around 3 per cent by the end of the year.

The bank also forecasts a slight increase in unemployment. The average registered unemployment rate is expected to rise from 2.1 per cent in 2026 to 2.2 per cent in 2027 and 2.3 per cent in 2028.

Not all economists are equally convinced that another rate hike will happen. Following the latest inflation data, DNB Carnegie considers such a move less certain than before. Much will therefore depend on upcoming data on prices and the state of the economy.

For someone repaying only a <span class="highlight id_95050">home loan<\/span>, a rate hike primarily means a more expensive mortgage. The problem becomes bigger when consumer loans, instalment purchases or used credit card limits are added to the mix.

Then it is not enough to look at a single monthly payment. You need to calculate all your obligations together and check which ones have the highest interest rates and put the greatest strain on your monthly budget.

You can do this in <a href="https:\/\/www.gjeldsmonitor.no\/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GjeldsMonitor<\/a>, where, after logging in with BankID, you can see loans and credit cards in one place. If you have several obligations, it is then easier to assess where to start reducing costs.

In the <a href="https:\/\/www.gjeldsmonitor.no\/gjeldsmonitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">loan and credit card monitor<\/a>, you can also compare balances, monthly payments, interest rates and card limits. This is particularly useful ahead of Norges Bank's next decision, when it is worth calculating how the household budget would respond to a possible further rate increase of 0.25 percentage points.

First, log in to your online banking and find the current nominal interest rate, effective interest rate and outstanding loan balance. For a home loan, you can then calculate the cost of a 0.25 percentage point increase in the interest rate.

If the household also has other obligations, it is a good idea to compare their monthly costs together. The high interest rate on a credit card or consumer loan may matter more to the current budget than a small change in the mortgage interest rate.

The next important date is <strong>24 September<\/strong>. Only then will it be known whether Norges Bank decides on another move or leaves the rate at its current level.

<ul> <li><a href="..\/finanse-i-kredyty\/wakacje-sie-skonczyly-ale-raty-zostaly-co-sprawdzic-w-swoich-kredytach-i-kartach-w-norwegii-30375.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The holidays are over, but the instalments remain. What should you check in your loans and cards in Norway?<\/a><\/li> <li><a href="https:\/\/www.gjeldsmonitor.no\/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Check your loans and cards in GjeldsMonitor<\/a><\/li> <\/ul>