Does Putin Lack the Forces for a Second Front? Russia Points to Norway's Activity

Norway is expanding its military capabilities near the border with Russia. In August, the Finnmark Brigade received three new units, including additional artillery and air defence systems. It is ultimately expected to number around 4,000 soldiers. Moscow links these actions to the broader increase in military activity by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the Arctic.<br /><br />At the same time, discussions are underway in Europe about the possibility of a future Russian attack on a NATO member state. German authorities had previously assessed that Russia could gain such capability by 2029. However, Stubb, writing in Bild, questions the possibility of naming such a specific date. He stresses that he sees no evidence to support such a scenario.

Russia criticizes the strengthening of NATO's military presence in the north. Lavrov also drew attention to Norway, which is developing its forces in areas close to the Russian border. In his view, military activity in the Arctic poses a direct threat to Russia's security. Writing in Arctic.ru, the Russian minister warned of events that could lead to armed confrontation.<br /><br />Norwegian plans include the further expansion of the Finnmark Brigade. Its strength is expected to eventually grow to around 4,000 soldiers, while the new units are to have, among other things, more artillery and air defence assets. Moscow presents these actions as part of a broader increase in NATO activity in the Arctic. Russia's position comes as European countries step up their defence preparations.

The Finnish president does not share assessments suggesting a possible Russian attack on NATO by 2029. Stubb points to the Alliance's advantage in conventional weapons, missiles and nuclear arsenal, and also bases his assessment on intelligence information. In his view, Russia would not benefit from testing NATO's readiness. He also emphasizes the limitations of Russian forces resulting from the war in Ukraine.<br /><br />According to Stubb, Russia loses around 30,000–35,000 soldiers each month, while approximately 27,000 new recruits join the army. The Finnish president believes that this situation limits Russia's ability to mobilize the forces needed to wage war on two fronts. At the same time, he notes that NATO must prepare for all scenarios. The Alliance itself said on Sunday that it currently sees no direct threat of a Russian attack.

NATO nevertheless points to an increase in Russian hybrid activity in Europe, including sabotage and actions conducted below the threshold of open war. The issue of a possible Russian operation against a NATO member state was also reportedly raised during CIA Director John Ratcliffe's recent visit to Russia. Stubb, meanwhile, indicates that the outcome of the war in Ukraine remains a key element of European security.