Lietuvių
Norges Bank laukia... stabilizacijos. Palūkanų normų mažinimas tik antroje metų pusėje?
Ekspertai sutaria – Norvegijos centrinis bankas laikysis laukimo pozicijos. flickr.com / Norges Bank / CC BY-ND 2.0
Artėjantį ketvirtadienį, birželio 19 d., Norges Bank paskelbs dar vieną sprendimą dėl palūkanų normų. Tačiau daugumos ekonomistų ir rinkos analitikų nuomone, jų mažinimo tikėtis nereikėtų. Pagrindinė palūkanų norma, šiuo metu siekianti 4,5 proc., greičiausiai išliks tame pačiame lygyje, kaip ir nuo 2023 m. gruodžio mėnesio.
Trumpai
- Norges Bank paskelbs sprendimą dėl palūkanų normų birželio 19 d.
- Dauguma ekonomistų nesitiki palūkanų mažinimo.
- Pagrindinė palūkanų norma šiuo metu yra 4,5 proc.
- Ekspertai prognozuoja, kad mažinimas galimas tik 2025 m. trečiąjį ketvirtį.
- Didelė bazinė infliacija ir susirūpinimas dėl silpnėjančios Norvegijos kronos daro įtaką banko sprendimams.
Experts agree – the Norwegian central bank will adopt a wait-and-see stance. Nine out of ten economists interviewed by the E24 portal do not believe that central bank governor Ida Wolden Bache and Norges Bank will cut interest rates this week.
– Neither inflation data nor the regional network provide reasons to cut interest rates now – says chief economist Tore Grobæk Vamraak from Sparebanken Norge.
Only Jan Ludvig Andreassen from Eika Gruppen believes the interest rate will be cut this week. In his opinion, the risk picture – especially regarding the krone exchange rate – indicates that action should be taken now.
At the same time, analysts from Capital Economics also emphasize that Norges Bank remains cautious, fearing renewed price increases as a result of easing monetary policy too quickly.
According to specialists from Nordea Markets, the Norwegian Central Bank will not only keep interest rates unchanged in June but will also signal to the market that cuts will only be possible with clearer signs of declining inflation and stabilization in the labor market.
Although the US dollar is declining, the Norwegian krone cannot count on an exceptionally good period.Source: Photo Adobe Stock, standard license
Inflation, krone and increasing pressure
According to market expectations, the first interest rate cut may occur only in the third quarter of 2025, most likely in September.
One of the main factors influencing Norges Bank's decision is still high core inflation, which – although declining – remains above the inflation target of 2%. According to data from early June, inflation in Norway was 3.5%, a decrease compared to the beginning of the year, but still above the central bank's inflation target.
At the same time, monetary authorities fear excessive weakening of the Norwegian krone. Lowering rates under current conditions could further reduce the value of the national currency, potentially leading to higher prices for imported goods.
Additionally, pressure is increasing from households and the construction industry, which are feeling the effects of high financing costs. A slowdown in these sectors may eventually force the central bank to revise its strategy.
Sources: E24, Norges Bank, NTB, MojaNorwegia.pl